On Friday, November 28, 2025, silver reached an all-time high in New York at a closing price of $56.43 per ounce. This is a sign of solid demand for the precious metal. Yet there is another factor at the moment that argues for rising silver prices: Seasonality.
Silver shows a distinct seasonal pattern
To examine the typical seasonal pattern of the silver price, we look at a seasonal chart. Unlike conventional charts, a seasonal chart does not show the price over a specific period of time. Instead, it shows the average price over many years depending on the season. For the chart used here, averages were calculated from a total of 57 years of price data. The horizontal axis shows the time of year, while the vertical axis shows price information. In this way, the typical seasonal trend becomes visible at a glance.
Silver, seasonal trend, USD basis, calculated over 57 years
The chart clearly shows that a seasonal low occurs in mid-December, followed by a seasonal upswing that lasts until the second half of February (shown on the left of the chart). The seasonally favourable entry point for silver is marked by the green arrow. It is December 16.
In 40 of the past 57 years, silver rose between December 16 and February 21 of the following year. The average gain amounted to more than 7 percent – an excellent result for such a short period of roughly two months. During the rest of the year, meaning between February 21 and December 16, an average loss occurred. This shows just how strong the seasonal phase between December 16 and February 21 truly is!
Silver’s seasonality has fundamental reasons
But what is the reason for this seasonal strength? Interestingly, platinum and palladium also tend to rise seasonally shortly before the beginning of the new year and into February. All three precious metals are also used in industry. Industrial demand apparently dominates the seasonal price pattern. The background is likely that many industrial processors place more of their purchase orders at the start of the new fiscal year.
Such calendar-driven business behaviour is not rational in terms of achieving the best purchase price. But it is understandable when considering that, in practical work environments, annual planning and ordering procedures are often aligned with the fiscal year. Buyers of precious metals either do not know the seasonal price patterns or do not follow them because internal business processes take priority. They tend to buy more around and especially after the turn of the year, when they already have an idea of their company’s silver requirements. In addition, the books are open.
Can investors make use of silver’s seasonality?
For investors, a well-founded seasonal pattern provides a probability statement. During positive seasonal phases, price increases are more likely than at other times. However, as with any other analytical method in the markets, seasonality cannot provide any guarantee regarding the future.
Overall, mid-December marks the beginning of a favourable season for the silver price. This increases the probability of rising silver prices.
How can you buy precious metals cheaply and store them safely?
Elementum Deutschland GmbH, based in Sindelfingen (Germany), specializes in trading physical precious metals. Customers who purchase precious metals from Elementum Deutschland (or one of the other national Elementum companies in five European countries) can store them in the renowned high-security vaulting facilities in the St. Gotthard Massif in Switzerland at Elementum International AG.
Of course, you also have the option of purchasing gold and silver directly and having it delivered to your desired address. However, storing silver in the so-called open duty-free warehouse (“offenes Zollfreilager”) at St. Gotthard offers decisive tax advantages:
- The 19% value added tax customary in Germany is completely waived on purchases and sales – a considerable price advantage that effectively secures you 19% more silver for your money.
- If you store your silver in this high-security vault, you can sell it back to Elementum Deutschland GmbH at any time – without any bureaucratic hassle and also without VAT, as the trade takes place within the duty-free warehouse. You will receive the funds via bank wire.
- VAT is only payable when you physically remove the stored silver – either by picking it up in person (after prior notification) or by having it shipped to your address.
More silver, more return
Thanks to duty-free storage, you receive 19% more physical silver when you buy. This additional amount also participates in the performance of the silver price if it rises – a leverage effect that significantly improves your return opportunities.
Secure your storage space now – free of charge and without obligation
Register now for a storage space in the St. Gotthard high-security vaulting facility and receive free access to:
- our General Terms and Conditions (GTC)
- current fee tables
- annual audit reports from the auditing company BDO AG
- transparent proof of use of funds
- family discount information
- the popular children’s program “Schatz4Kids” (“Treasure4Kids”)
- as well as numerous other documents and information on storage, purchase, and resale, as well as the ratio “switching” strategy.
Register now: https://silberbar.elementum.de/
Tip for discounted entry: Enter the promotional code “50” (“Aktionscode“) and the “Vermittler” number 1000166 when registering to receive a 50% discount on the storage space setup fee.
Important: Registration is non-binding and does not commit you to anything – but it is your first step towards an independent and crisis-proof precious metal investment.
Elementum is a second-generation, owner-managed family business. Trust, consistency, and long-term thinking are at the heart of our philosophy. The Board of Directors of Elementum International AG is composed of internationally renowned experts in the money and precious metals markets, including economists, analysts, university professors, and precious metals specialists. This in-depth expertise forms the backbone of our actions – for your security, your assets, and your future.
About the Author
Dimitri Speck
Member of the Board of Directors of Elementum International AG
Dimitri Speck specializes in analyzing the financial system and financial markets. He is the author of a stock market newsletter and the books “Geheime Goldpolitik” (“Secret Gold Policy”) and “Die größte Finanz-Blase aller Zeiten” (“The Greatest Financial Bubble of All Time”). His work on commodities, precious metals, and seasonality was awarded the German Precious Metals Association Prize in 2013 and the Scope Award in 2018. Mr. Speck is the editor of the website www.seasonax.com on seasonal studies.
Contact
Rockstone News & Research
Stephan Bogner (Dipl. Kfm., FH)
Müligässli 1, 8598 Bottighofen
Switzerland
Phone: +41-71-5896911
Email: info@rockstone-news.com
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal opinion of the author. Elementum assumes no responsibility for the accuracy of the content and accepts no liability for its use. This article may contain links to external third-party websites. Elementum is not responsible for the content of these external sites and expressly distances itself from all information provided there. At the time the links were created, no unlawful content was identifiable. This article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. Elementum International AG is a Swiss company that specializes exclusively in the storage of physical precious metals in a high-security vault facility located in the St. Gotthard mountain massif in Central Switzerland. The Board of Directors and Executive Management of Elementum International AG have been selected solely based on their professional expertise and long-standing experience in precious metals markets. As these individuals may also be professionally active outside their roles at Elementum International AG, the company has no influence over their external activities and respects their right to freedom of expression. Therefore, the views expressed by persons working with or for Elementum do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Elementum International AG. Investments in precious metals are subject to risks, including those specific to the structure of this market. Please read our full risk disclosures and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Neither the author, Elementum International AG, nor Elementum Deutschland GmbH assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The cover picture has been obtained and licenced from 123rf.com.
