The price of gold has doubled since November 2022 in US Dollar terms, much to the delight of gold investors. However, the rise in the gold price paused in mid-April. Some investors are concerned that the bull market is over. But corrections are perfectly normal; no investment on the markets rises without counter-movements. Due to the particularly sharp rise in the price of gold, especially since the beginning of 2024, the correction may also be longer or larger – but this would not interrupt the gold bull market.
After all, there are good reasons for the gold bull market. These include the high levels of debt in almost all major countries, the desolate financial system, inflationary risks, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases.
But what does the short and medium term look like? Naturally, no one can say for sure. However, there is a strong indication that the gold price should rise again quite soon: The typical seasonal pattern.
Seasonality favors gold!
To examine the typical seasonal pattern of the gold price, let’s look at a seasonal chart. Unlike conventional charts, a seasonal chart does not show the price over a specific period of time. Rather, it shows the average price over many years depending on the season, i.e. the typical seasonal pattern. To this end, average values are calculated from the prices of a total of 25 years.
The horizontal axis of the chart shows the time of year, while the vertical axis shows price information. This allows you to see the seasonal trend at a glance in the chart.
The chart clearly shows that there is a seasonal low at the beginning of July. The best time to buy gold is marked with a green arrow. This is July 6. After that, gold typically begins to rise. The seasonal increase lasts until the second half of February.
In 21 of the past 25 years, gold rose between July 6 and February 24 of the following year. The average gain was almost 10%. During the rest of the time, i.e., between February 24 and July 6, there was a slight loss on average, with price declines in 15 of the 25 cases. This shows how good the seasonal phase between July 6 and February 24 of the following year is!
The first half of July is therefore the best season for gold, meaning that investors can once again expect high profits from a seasonal perspective.
There are solid reasons for the seasonality of gold!
The seasonal rise in gold prices from July onwards has a solid fundamental reason: It is linked to various festivities. After all, gold is not just an investment and industrial metal. Around half of annual gold production is used in jewelry manufacturing. This therefore has an impact on the price of gold.
These festivities take place at certain times of the year – and so does gold buying. On the one hand, there is Christmas towards the end of the year. But Asian festivals are at least as important: Chinese New Year in February and the wedding season in India in the fall. Gold is often given as a gift during these festivals. Jewelry retailers and producers naturally stock up before the festive seasons, which tends to push up the price of gold.
How to take advantage of gold’s seasonality!
Investors can use the seasonality of gold to improve their buying and selling timing or to manage their level of investment. As shown, from a seasonal perspective, it makes sense to buy gold in the first half of July rather than at the end of February.
Unlike the 25 years on which the seasonal chart and seasonal statistics are based, we are now in a gold bull market, so the coming rise may be stronger than the 10% suggested by the statistics.
Overall, the best season for the gold price begins in early July.
This increases the likelihood that the correction in gold is already over and that the big bull market in gold will continue.
How can you buy precious metals cheaply and store them safely?
Elementum Deutschland GmbH, based in Sindelfingen (Germany), specializes in trading physical precious metals. Customers who purchase precious metals from Elementum Deutschland (or one of the other national Elementum companies in five European countries) can store them in the renowned high-security vaulting facilities in the St. Gotthard Massif in Switzerland at Elementum International AG.
Of course, you also have the option of purchasing gold and silver directly and having it delivered to your desired address. However, storing silver in the so-called open duty-free warehouse (“offenes Zollfreilager”) at St. Gotthard offers decisive tax advantages:
- The 19% value added tax customary in Germany is completely waived on purchases and sales – a considerable price advantage that effectively secures you 19% more silver for your money.
- If you store your silver in this high-security vault, you can sell it back to Elementum Deutschland GmbH at any time – without any bureaucratic hassle and also without VAT, as the trade takes place within the duty-free warehouse. You will receive the funds via bank wire.
- VAT is only payable when you physically remove the stored silver – either by picking it up in person (after prior notification) or by having it shipped to your address.
More silver, more return
Thanks to duty-free storage, you receive 19% more physical silver when you buy. This additional amount also participates in the performance of the silver price if it rises – a leverage effect that significantly improves your return opportunities.
Secure your storage space now – free of charge and without obligation
Register now for a storage space in the St. Gotthard high-security vaulting facility and receive free access to:
- our General Terms and Conditions (GTC)
- current fee tables
- annual audit reports from the auditing company BDO AG
- transparent proof of use of funds
- family discount information
- the popular children’s program “Schatz4Kids” (“Treasure4Kids”)
- as well as numerous other documents and information on storage, purchase, and resale, as well as the ratio “switching” strategy.
Register now: https://silberbar.elementum.de/
Tip for discounted entry: Enter the promotional code “50” (“Aktionscode“) and the “Vermittler” number 1000166 when registering to receive a 50% discount on the storage space setup fee.
Important: Registration is non-binding and does not commit you to anything – but it is your first step towards an independent and crisis-proof precious metal investment.
Elementum is a second-generation, owner-managed family business. Trust, consistency, and long-term thinking are at the heart of our philosophy. The Board of Directors of Elementum International AG is composed of internationally renowned experts in the money and precious metals markets, including economists, analysts, university professors, and precious metals specialists. This in-depth expertise forms the backbone of our actions—for your security, your assets, and your future.
About the Author
Dimitri Speck
Member of the Board of Directors of Elementum International AG
Dimitri Speck specializes in analyzing the financial system and financial markets. He is the author of a stock market newsletter and the books “Geheime Goldpolitik” (“Secret Gold Policy”) and “Die größte Finanz-Blase aller Zeiten” (“The Greatest Financial Bubble of All Time”). His work on commodities, precious metals, and seasonality was awarded the German Precious Metals Association Prize in 2013 and the Scope Award in 2018. Mr. Speck is the editor of the website www.seasonax.com on seasonal studies.
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Disclaimer: This article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. Elementum International AG is a Swiss company that specializes exclusively in the storage of physical precious metals in a high-security vault facility located in the St. Gotthard mountain massif in Central Switzerland. The Board of Directors and Executive Management of Elementum International AG have been selected solely based on their professional expertise and long-standing experience in precious metals markets. As these individuals may also be professionally active outside their roles at Elementum International AG, the company has no influence over their external activities and respects their right to freedom of expression. Therefore, the views expressed by persons working with or for Elementum do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Elementum International AG. Investments in precious metals are subject to risks, including those specific to the structure of this market. Please read our full risk disclosures and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Neither the author, Elementum International AG, nor Elementum Deutschland GmbH assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
