Since January 1, 2026, silver in China has been subject to new export restrictions. What initially sounds like a technical trade regulation turns out, on closer inspection, to be a profound intervention in a market that is of central importance to the modern world.
Silver today is no longer just a precious metal for investors. It is a system-relevant raw material without which many essential areas of everyday life would not function, from power generation and electronics to modern medical technology.
The Chinese measures do not only affect raw silver, meaning unprocessed material from mines, but above all refined, high-purity and value-added silver products. These are precisely the forms required by industry, technology companies and institutional market participants. As a result, the impact of these export restrictions extends far beyond China and affects the global silver market as a whole.
Silver in the 21st century: From precious metal to system-relevant raw material
For thousands of years, silver was primarily one thing: Money, a store of value and a foundation of trust. Silver coins served as a means of payment, and silver was regarded as a symbol of wealth and stability. This monetary role has not disappeared. However, a second dimension has emerged that is at least as important.
In the modern world, silver is a key technological metal. It has exceptionally high electrical conductivity, is chemically stable and can be used in a wide range of applications. For this reason, silver is indispensable for solar cells, for almost all forms of modern electronics, for electromobility, for medical applications and for numerous industrial processes. Without silver, there would be no high-performance photovoltaic systems, no reliable conductor tracks in electronic components and many modern medical devices could not be manufactured.
In addition, silver is essential for security- and defense-related applications. It is used, among other things, in communication systems, radar technology, precision sensors, guidance and control systems and in certain weapons systems, where the highest levels of electrical conductivity, reliability and corrosion resistance are required.
This strategic importance has now also received official recognition. In the United States, silver is classified as a “strategic mineral”, meaning a raw material considered indispensable for national security, industrial capability and the country’s defense capacity. Such a classification is reserved for materials whose supply disruptions would have direct economic or security-related consequences.
This makes one thing clear: Silver is no longer an “ordinary” industrial metal. It is a critical raw material whose availability has not only economic but also geopolitical and military relevance.
Hardly any other metal combines monetary history and technological future in this way. It is precisely this dual role that makes silver so special and at the same time so vulnerable to disruptions in supply chains.
A fundamental difference: Silver is not a classic primary raw material
One point that is not immediately intuitive for many people, yet is crucial to understanding the silver market, is that silver is in most cases not mined for silver itself. Around 70% of global silver production arises as a by-product of mining other metals, in particular copper, zinc, lead and gold.
This has very concrete implications. Even though primary silver mines do exist, they play only a limited role in setting the overall market. The majority of silver is produced as a secondary output of other metals. As a result, silver supply depends less on the silver price itself and more on the production levels of other metals, which means it can only adjust very slowly to rising demand.
When a copper or zinc mine increases or reduces output, the amount of silver produced rises or falls automatically, regardless of how strong demand for silver itself may be. Silver production therefore cannot be flexibly controlled. Higher prices do not automatically lead to a larger supply. While demand for silver, for example driven by the expansion of renewable energy, can increase rapidly, supply responds only sluggishly.
This is precisely why silver is often described as structurally scarce. This scarcity exists even in the absence of geopolitical tensions. Political interventions such as export restrictions only intensify this situation further.
China as a producing country: Around 13 percent of global supply
China plays a dual role in the silver market. On the one hand, the country is a key player in downstream processing. On the other hand, it is also one of the world’s largest silver producers. China regularly ranks second or third among global silver-producing countries. Annual production is in the range of approximately 3,200-3,400 metric tons, which corresponds to roughly 13% of global mine output.
Put differently, more than 1 out of every 8 newly mined ounces of silver worldwide comes from China. Even at the level of raw material production, a significant portion of global supply is therefore subject to state regulation and political influence. When a country with such a large production share simultaneously imposes export restrictions, this inevitably has repercussions for the global market.
Mining is not the same as metal: Why ore is not yet silver
Another central point that is often underestimated concerns the path from ore to finished silver. When people think of silver, they often immediately picture bars or coins. In reality, however, the journey to that end product is long and technically demanding.
After extraction, the silver must first be separated from the ore. This is followed by chemical processing to remove impurities. The material is then refined in several stages to a very high level of purity until the required fineness is achieved. Only then can the silver be cast into bars or industrial forms and finally certified. It is only at the end of this process that truly deliverable silver emerges, meaning silver that can be used by industry or traded internationally.
The key takeaway is therefore clear: Mining is not the same as metal. Refining equals delivery power. Those who control refining ultimately determine whether silver is available, in what quality it exists and whether it can actually be delivered.
China’s real source of power: Refining and downstream processing
This is precisely where China’s true strength comes into play. Depending on the segment, China controls a substantial share of global silver refining and downstream processing. This is particularly true for high-purity silver with fineness levels of 99.99% and above, for silver powders and pastes used in the photovoltaic and electronics industries, and for the recycling of electronic and industrial scrap.
Estimates suggest that China accounts for roughly 35-45% of formal global silver refining capacity. In especially critical stages of industrial downstream processing, its share is even higher, at around 50-70%. In practical terms, this means that even silver mined outside China often has to pass through Chinese refineries before it becomes usable for industrial purposes.
Export restrictions from January 1, 2026
The export restrictions that came into force at the beginning of 2026 target precisely these sensitive points in the supply chain. They primarily affect high-purity refined silver, value-added silver forms and industrial intermediate products. As a result, China is able to prioritize silver for domestic use, tighten global supply chains and put pressure on international industrial companies, all without closing a single mine. Administrative measures alone are sufficient to create a noticeable impact on the global market.
Paper markets and physical reality
In times of heightened geopolitical tension, a familiar pattern tends to emerge. In paper markets, meaning certificates and derivatives, liquidity often appears to be abundant. At the same time, physical silver becomes increasingly difficult to obtain. The consequences can include rising premiums, delivery delays or restricted availability. Industrial buyers are often supplied first, while other market participants are forced to wait.
In this context, a certificate represents nothing more than a claim. A physical silver bar, by contrast, is real substance.
LBMA Good Delivery silver: The highest standard in the silver market
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) defines globally binding standards for precious metal bars. A silver bar that meets the so-called Good Delivery standard has a guaranteed minimum fineness of 999.0 and is produced by a refinery approved by the LBMA. Such bars are internationally accepted by banks, exchanges and institutional market participants. LBMA Good Delivery silver is therefore considered the most liquid, most trustworthy and most widely recognized form of physical silver worldwide.
The structural advantage for Elementum clients
Elementum stores exclusively physical silver in LBMA Good Delivery quality for its clients. In the current geopolitical environment, this represents a decisive difference. This silver is already fully refined, certified and physically present. It is stored outside China, independent of future export approvals and immediately tradable and deliverable.
While other market participants may still depend on refining, conversion or political authorizations, this silver already exists as a finished, internationally recognized substance.
Bottom Line: Silver is once again a geopolitical metal
Recent developments make it clear that silver today is far more than just a precious metal for investors. The combination of China’s roughly 13% share of global mine production, its dominant position in refining and the export restrictions in force since 2026 has turned silver back into what it has historically always been: A political and strategic metal whose availability increasingly depends on geopolitical decisions and functioning supply chains.
At the same time, it is becoming increasingly evident that not all silver is the same. Differences in purity, processing stage, certification and storage location determine whether silver is actually available in a crisis, internationally tradable and clearly allocated to its owner. An ounce on paper is something entirely different from physical silver, an arbitrary bar is not the same as an internationally recognized standard bar and a theoretical storage solution is not the same as real ownership and access security.
The developments since 2026 therefore lead to a clear conclusion. Control of the supply chain is more important than sheer production volumes. Actual physical availability matters more than a spot price on a screen and quality is more important in the long term than pure quantity. Substance outweighs promises.
For Elementum clients, this situation translates into a structural advantage. Because Elementum stores exclusively already refined, certified physical silver of high quality, client holdings are no longer exposed to an uncertain supply chain. They are physically present, clearly allocated and independent of future export approvals or refining bottlenecks. This creates calm and flexibility, even in an environment of increasing scarcity.
At the same time, it would be unrealistic to claim that global bottlenecks will leave all market participants unaffected. If silver becomes even scarcer in the coming years, delivery times may lengthen and new availability may be temporarily limited. The decisive difference, however, is that Elementum clients already own their silver, while others may still need to buy it, have it delivered or refined.
LBMA Good Delivery silver, securely stored outside critical supply chains, is therefore not a luxury in this environment but strategic asset substance. This is exactly what Elementum stands for: Physical silver of the highest quality, clear and legally secure ownership structures and a storage strategy that continues to function even when global supply chains come under pressure.
What does this mean for investors?
For investors, current developments mean above all that silver is no longer just about price. Increasingly, it is about quality, availability and structure. What matters is not only how much silver one owns, but in what form, of what quality and where it is stored.
Physical silver that is already refined and internationally recognized offers a clear advantage in an environment of rising geopolitical tensions and potential supply bottlenecks. Those who already hold their silver securely stored are less dependent on future market disruptions, export restrictions or long delivery times. At the same time, investors should be aware that growing scarcity can also lead to periods in which new availability is limited.
In short, early positioning, high quality and a well-considered storage strategy create calm and room for maneuver, especially as silver continues to gain importance as a strategic raw material.
If you would like to explore how physical silver can be sensibly stored and structured, or what role silver can play in a long-term wealth strategy, feel free to speak with the Elementum team. We take the time to address your questions and explain the options in a transparent and comprehensible manner.
How can you buy precious metals cheaply and store them safely?
Elementum Deutschland GmbH, based in Sindelfingen (Germany), specializes in trading physical precious metals. Customers who purchase precious metals from Elementum Deutschland (or one of the other national Elementum companies in five European countries) can store them in the renowned high-security vaulting facilities in the St. Gotthard Massif in Switzerland at Elementum International AG.
Of course, you also have the option of purchasing gold and silver directly and having it delivered to your desired address. However, storing silver in the so-called open duty-free warehouse (“offenes Zollfreilager”) at St. Gotthard offers decisive tax advantages:
- The 19% value added tax customary in Germany is completely waived on purchases and sales – a considerable price advantage that effectively secures you 19% more silver for your money.
- If you store your silver in this high-security vault, you can sell it back to Elementum Deutschland GmbH at any time – without any bureaucratic hassle and also without VAT, as the trade takes place within the duty-free warehouse. You will receive the funds via bank wire.
- VAT is only payable when you physically remove the stored silver – either by picking it up in person (after prior notification) or by having it shipped to your address.
More silver, more return
Thanks to duty-free storage, you receive 19% more physical silver when you buy. This additional amount also participates in the performance of the silver price if it rises – a leverage effect that significantly improves your return opportunities.
Secure your storage space now – free of charge and without obligation
Register now for a storage space in the St. Gotthard high-security vaulting facility and receive free access to:
- our General Terms and Conditions (GTC)
- current fee tables
- annual audit reports from the auditing company BDO AG
- transparent proof of use of funds
- family discount information
- the popular children’s program “Schatz4Kids” (“Treasure4Kids”)
- as well as numerous other documents and information on storage, purchase, and resale, as well as the ratio “switching” strategy.
Register now: https://silberbar.elementum.de/
Tip for discounted entry: Enter the promotional code “50” (“Aktionscode“) and the “Vermittler” number 1000166 when registering to receive a 50% discount on the storage space setup fee.
Important: Registration is non-binding and does not commit you to anything – but it is your first step towards an independent and crisis-proof precious metal investment.
Elementum is a second-generation, owner-managed family business. Trust, consistency, and long-term thinking are at the heart of our philosophy. The Board of Directors of Elementum International AG is composed of internationally renowned experts in the money and precious metals markets, including economists, analysts, university professors, and precious metals specialists. This in-depth expertise forms the backbone of our actions – for your security, your assets, and your future.
About the Author
Stephan Bogner
CEO of Elementum International AG
Stephan Bogner, who holds a degree in business administration, studied economics at ISM Dortmund (Germany) and wrote the university’s first thesis on precious metals as a hedge against inflation. After studying in the UK and Australia and gaining professional experience in Dubai, he took over as CEO of Elementum International AG in Switzerland in 2012. His expertise in precious metals has had a significant impact on the company’s development.
Contact
Rockstone News & Research
Stephan Bogner (Dipl. Kfm., FH)
Müligässli 1, 8598 Bottighofen
Switzerland
Phone: +41-71-5896911
Email: info@rockstone-news.com
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal opinion of the author. Elementum assumes no responsibility for the accuracy of the content and accepts no liability for its use. This article may contain links to external third-party websites. Elementum is not responsible for the content of these external sites and expressly distances itself from all information provided there. At the time the links were created, no unlawful content was identifiable. This article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. Elementum International AG is a Swiss company that specializes exclusively in the storage of physical precious metals in a high-security vault facility located in the St. Gotthard mountain massif in Central Switzerland. The Board of Directors and Executive Management of Elementum International AG have been selected solely based on their professional expertise and long-standing experience in precious metals markets. As these individuals may also be professionally active outside their roles at Elementum International AG, the company has no influence over their external activities and respects their right to freedom of expression. Therefore, the views expressed by persons working with or for Elementum do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Elementum International AG. Investments in precious metals are subject to risks, including those specific to the structure of this market. Please read our full risk disclosures and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Neither the author, Elementum International AG, nor Elementum Deutschland GmbH assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The cover picture has been obtained and licenced from 123rf.com.
